Forecasting the dry bulk freight market in 2011 and 2012

Abstract

Dry Bulk market is the largest sector of world shipping market. The analysis of this market and the assessment of dry bulk freight rate ,market behavior, policy making in this field, transportation policies and fleet development, and also research in dry bulk shipping industry is inevitable. The main aim of this study is to analyze and forecast the future of dry bulk freight market in 2011 and 2012. Since the shipping industry is known to be a volatile industry; therefore, understanding the characteristics of this market and forecasting its volatilities have been of prime interest in operational and financial decision makings. To achieve this aim, linear regression, multiple regression and time series analyses (winer’s exponential smoothing) methods is used. Results of the study show that the Baltic Dry Index in 2011 and 2012 may decrease in relation to 2010, but this drop in 2011 will be drastic and in 2012 modest.