Online beach evolution model for Nigerian shoreline: a case study of Victoria bar beach, Lagos

Abstract

The dynamic state of the Nigerian shoreline, dominantly erosional has been a source of concern to various state and Federal Governments particularly in the past few decades because of the enormous adverse socio-economic implementation it engenders. An ability to predict the future behavioural patterns of the Nigerian shoreline affords an invaluable scientific input into long term and large scale managerial planning for the Nigerian coastal zone. This paper documents a first attempt at formulating a mathematical model for beach states in Nigeria using Victoria bar beach as a case study. A controlled section of the beach was selected while measurements of some of the variable characteristics were carried out periodically. While it is ultimately desirable to include such variable i.e. meteologic, oceanographic information in the modelling process, such an attempt at this stage will be unnecessarily cumbersome. This paper therefore focuses on a time variant volumetric expression for the behavioural pattern of the Victoria bar beach. Results obtained show system solution of the form.

R = ∫to h(t) x (t – c)dt

Where R is the System output rate; h(t) is an response function, characterizing of identifying system; C is a dummy parameter of time and x represents the inflow into the control volume.