Report of the PICES/ICES Working Group on Forecasting Climate Change Impacts on Fish and Shellfish

Abstract

In 2008, the North Pacific Marine Science Organization (PICES) and the International Council for the Exploration of the Sea (ICES) approved the formation of an interdisciplinary Working Group on Forecasting Climate Change Impacts on Fish and Shellfish (WG-FCCIFS). This Working Group was designed to enagage the PICES and ICES scientific communities in an effort to discuss and assess our current understanding of the implications of climate change on marine fish and fisheries. The group was quite active, and the products of WG-FCCIFS include one major scientific symposium, a symposium volume and several peer reviewed journal articles. WG-FCCIFS’s primary accomplishments and research findings are described in this report. The group promoted research on climate change impacts on marine ecosystems by scientists in PICES and ICES member countries through coordinated communication, exchange of methodology, and organization of meetings to discuss and publish results. In collaboration with relevant expert groups in PICES and ICES, WG-FCCIFS developed frameworks and methodologies for projecting the impacts of climate change on marine ecosystems, with particular emphasis on shifts in the distribution, abundance and production of commercial fish and shellfish. WG-FCCIFS members met to review the results of designated case studies to test methods. Given the limitations of our forecasts, they also explored techniques for estimating and communicating uncertainty in forecasts and strategies for research and management under climate change scenarios. As the 3-year term for WG-FCCIFS approached, it was clear that PICES and ICES were well positioned to serve as world leaders in advancing science on assessments of climate change impacts on marine ecosystems. This recognition led to the formation of the ICES Strategic Initiative on Climate Change Effects on Marine Ecosystems (SICCME), referred to as the Section on Climate Change Effects on Marine Ecosystems (S-CCME) within PICES.