Modelling current and future distribution of the invasive silver-cheeked toadfish ‎Lagocephalus sceleratus in the Mediterranean Sea

Abstract

The progress in species distribution modeling has brought new insights into biological ‎invasion management. The present study aims to model the potential current geographic ‎distribution and future expansion of silver-cheeked toadfish Lagocephalus sceleratus in ‎the Mediterranean Sea. Coordinates of 98 occurrence records of L. sceleratus in the ‎Mediterranean were used, and marine climatic variables were collected from the global ‎databases. Fifteen modeling techniques were tested, and weighted ensemble averaging of ‎the model replicates was built. AUC values for each model ranged from 0.61 for rpart to ‎‎0.99 for rf, and TSS values varied from 0.41 for mlp to 0.95 for rf. Based on the cutoff ‎values of TSS and AUC, the seven modelling algorithms were used for ensemble ‎modeling. The maximum seawater temperature at minimum depth explained strong ‎biological importance to the current adaptation, and the salinity contributed the most to ‎the future adaptation. The ensemble forecasting of suitable habitats of L. sceleratus for ‎current distribution modeling revealed that L. sceleratus dominantly occurred in ‎the middle and eastern parts of coastal areas of the Mediterranean. The future ‎distribution was extended to the western part of coastal areas of the Mediterranean, ‎classifying the high suitability of these areas for its future distribution. The suitable ‎bioclimatic envelope of L. sceleratus under the present study is predicted to widen ‎because of climate change. The likely regions of invasion and the areas at risk for a ‎potential future invasion of L. sceleratus indicate that prompt, effective practical actions ‎by resource managers should be undertaken to mitigate its impacts and spread.‎